There was a real oddity yesterday - a by-election in a ward where there was more than one vacancy, allowing the STV system to come into its own. However, the familiar discrepancy still applied - the Greens were defending one of the two seats in spite of finishing third last time, meaning they had to gain significant ground just to hold what they had. Unfortunately from a pro-independence point of view, they didn't quite make it.
Leith Walk by-election (10th September) :
SNP 36.2% (+7.7)
Labour 25.7% (-7.5)
Greens 21.8% (+1.5)
Conservatives 7.9% (-0.2)
Liberal Democrats 4.0% (-1.1)
UKIP 1.6% (n/a)
SSP 1.5% (n/a)
Left Unity 0.5% (n/a)
Independent 0.4% (n/a)
Libertarian 0.3% (n/a)
Techincally that worked out as one SNP hold and one Labour "gain" from the Greens, but of course the real story is the 7.6% swing from Labour to the SNP. That's significantly more modest than the swings in other recent by-elections - whether that's the Corbyn effect, or the 'Edinburgh is a different planet' effect, or something else entirely, is difficult to say. Hopefully the Midlothian result will give us some clues.
Excluding a by-election in independent-dominated Orkney, this is also the first time since the general election that any local seat has been won by a party other than the SNP, but in this case it was impossible for them to take both seats - they only put up one candidate.
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I'm still travelling, so have to save my battery, but as you may have seen by now, the swing to the SNP in the Midlothian by-election was very similar to the one in Leith Walk (slightly lower, in fact). Coincidence, or evidence of a Corbyn bounce for Labour? If the latter, we may have to get used to it, because the scale of Sadiq Khan's victory in London today surely makes it inevitable that Jeremy Corbyn will become Labour leader tomorrow morning. Hold on to your hats - we're about to set off on a journey into the unknown.
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