Want another independence referendum within the next ten years?
Yes 59%
No 41%
Want another independence referendum at some point?
Yes 80%
No 20%
Survation have also asked the direct question about independence for a third time since the referendum. In spite of introducing weighting by recalled referendum vote (which leads to the Yes vote being significantly downweighted), all three results have shown a race that is too close to call. One of them suggested an exactly level-pegging contest, while the other two - including tonight's - have shown a narrow No lead within the margin of error. All three have implied a Yes vote that is markedly higher than at any point during the long referendum campaign - ie. if Survation had stuck with their pre-referendum methodology, and had not brought in weighting by recalled referendum vote, they would now be consistently showing Yes support above the record high for the campaign of 48%.
Survation are one of three firms to have posed the independence question since the referendum, but are the only one to have found No ahead at any point since September. Part of the reason for that is methodological - YouGov haven't introduced weighting by recalled referendum vote (although Panelbase have and yet still put Yes ahead). It may seem obvious that the case for this new weighting is well-founded, but it's just possible that Survation may be over-compensating, and thus underestimating the Yes vote slightly. One thing that has to be borne in mind is that they are reliant on a volunteer polling panel, which will include a disproportionate number of politically committed people. This means that by upweighting respondents who recall voting No, they may be upweighting too many "hard" No voters and too few "soft" No voters (the latter of whom are more likely to have changed their minds over the last few months). OK, the same thing could be said about absolutely any sort of past vote weighting, but that doesn't invalidate the point - particularly bearing in mind that weighting by referendum vote is a completely untested approach. It's also conceivable that "buyer's remorse" is at play, and that a few people are claiming to have voted Yes because they wish they had done. It wouldn't take all that many of them to distort the result of a poll (and ironically distort it in favour of No).
But the bottom line is that, even if Survation's new methodology is bang on the money, a referendum held now would be on a knife-edge, and nobody would be sure of the winner until the votes were counted.
* * *
I was interested to hear Michael Heseltine on Question Time say how horror-struck he would be if the Scottish National Party ever had influence on the fate of Britain's nuclear weapons - which is tantamount to saying that Scottish voters have no business taking their own view on Trident. The Tory message to Scotland over the last few months seems to have gone like this...
"Scotland, you are LOVED. You are RESPECTED. You are a VALUED part of our United Kingdom. PLEASE stay. Stay until all the seas gang drrrrrry (nice one, Captain Jack). Oh good, you've stayed. By the way, just so there's no misunderstanding over this - WE MAKE THE DECISIONS AROUND HERE. No, seriously, Scotland - SHUT UP."
Survation have also asked the direct question about independence for a third time since the referendum. In spite of introducing weighting by recalled referendum vote (which leads to the Yes vote being significantly downweighted), all three results have shown a race that is too close to call. One of them suggested an exactly level-pegging contest, while the other two - including tonight's - have shown a narrow No lead within the margin of error. All three have implied a Yes vote that is markedly higher than at any point during the long referendum campaign - ie. if Survation had stuck with their pre-referendum methodology, and had not brought in weighting by recalled referendum vote, they would now be consistently showing Yes support above the record high for the campaign of 48%.
Survation are one of three firms to have posed the independence question since the referendum, but are the only one to have found No ahead at any point since September. Part of the reason for that is methodological - YouGov haven't introduced weighting by recalled referendum vote (although Panelbase have and yet still put Yes ahead). It may seem obvious that the case for this new weighting is well-founded, but it's just possible that Survation may be over-compensating, and thus underestimating the Yes vote slightly. One thing that has to be borne in mind is that they are reliant on a volunteer polling panel, which will include a disproportionate number of politically committed people. This means that by upweighting respondents who recall voting No, they may be upweighting too many "hard" No voters and too few "soft" No voters (the latter of whom are more likely to have changed their minds over the last few months). OK, the same thing could be said about absolutely any sort of past vote weighting, but that doesn't invalidate the point - particularly bearing in mind that weighting by referendum vote is a completely untested approach. It's also conceivable that "buyer's remorse" is at play, and that a few people are claiming to have voted Yes because they wish they had done. It wouldn't take all that many of them to distort the result of a poll (and ironically distort it in favour of No).
But the bottom line is that, even if Survation's new methodology is bang on the money, a referendum held now would be on a knife-edge, and nobody would be sure of the winner until the votes were counted.
* * *
I was interested to hear Michael Heseltine on Question Time say how horror-struck he would be if the Scottish National Party ever had influence on the fate of Britain's nuclear weapons - which is tantamount to saying that Scottish voters have no business taking their own view on Trident. The Tory message to Scotland over the last few months seems to have gone like this...
"Scotland, you are LOVED. You are RESPECTED. You are a VALUED part of our United Kingdom. PLEASE stay. Stay until all the seas gang drrrrrry (nice one, Captain Jack). Oh good, you've stayed. By the way, just so there's no misunderstanding over this - WE MAKE THE DECISIONS AROUND HERE. No, seriously, Scotland - SHUT UP."
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