The former Labour MP Eric Joyce has a piece at Wings Over Scotland arguing that there should be a very quick independence referendum provided that the polls next week show 60% support for independence, which he is quite sure they will do. My own view is that there has been a material change of circumstances and that people should therefore be given a second chance to express their view regardless of what the polls show (unless perhaps they show a significant drop in support for independence, in which case there wouldn't be sufficient demand to justify it - but obviously that's not going to happen). It should now be clear for all to see that the myth stating that there is always a swing back towards the status quo over the course of a referendum campaign is just that - a myth. As uncomfortable a thought as this may be, it's only really during the heat of the campaign that we'll find out whether a majority are prepared to vote Yes - and that's true regardless of whether the polls months or years in advance show a majority for Yes or No.
On the question of what the forthcoming polls will actually show, I agree it's perfectly possible that they'll be as high as 60% for Yes given the unprecedented situation we now find ourselves in, but I don't see how we can be certain of that given the underlying complexities of public opinion. Yes, we know anecdotally that a great many liberal unionists are switching to Yes, but what we don't know is how the minority of independence supporters who voted for Brexit (because of immigration, I mean, rather than for tactical reasons) are quietly feeling right now. My guess is that most of them will stick with Yes, but we'll have to wait for the polls to find out for sure. Basically what I'm saying is that I hope we're not talking ourselves into a situation where a clear lead for independence is going to look like a disappointment if it happens to fall short of an arbitrary figure.
The other thing I would say is that whatever the Yes figure is next week (assuming there's been a significant boost), it's likely there'll be some gradual slippage as the weeks and months wear on, and we should be mentally prepared for that and not worry too much about it. Clearly there'll be no "getting back to normal" on Planet Brexit, but by the end of the year we might well end up with a Yes figure midway between what it was before Thursday and whatever it is now. With a bit of luck, that'll still be plenty.
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